ASEAN Trade Under the New U.S. Tariff Policy

ERI FEB RAS	Issue's contents	RUS
	Regionalistica 2025 Volume 12 number 6 pages 24-34

Title of the article	ASEAN Trade Under the New U.S. Tariff Policy
Pages	24-34
Author	Dyomina Yana Valeryevna candidate of sciences (economics), senior research fellow Economic Research Institute FEB RAS 153, Tikhookeanskaya Street, Khabarovsk, Russia, 680042 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0001-5208-7273
Abstract	The article examines the new U.S. tariff policy and assesses the impact of geopolitical factors on the foreign trade of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The new administration of the United States has introduced a complex system of tariffs on goods imported from all U.S. partner countries. There are reciprocal tariffs, a transshipment tariff (40%), special tariffs for specific products (25–50%), special tariffs under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (10–50%), anti-dumping and countervailing duties. Some of the highest rates have been set for ASEAN member states. Officially, this was due to large trade deficits, however, an analysis of the shares of the United States and China in the trade turnover of the countries under consideration and the UN voting results of ASEAN states allows us to hypothesize that the membership in the conditional blocks «East» (proximity to China and Russia) and «West» (to the United States) influenced the value of the final rates of reciprocal tariffs. Thus, Laos and Myanmar (the East block) became the objects of reciprocal tariffs of 40%. These are countries loyal to Russia, which did not participate in the negotiations on the revision of the initial tariffs, as well as having the maximum share of China in trade and the minimum share of the United States. Tariffs were set at 10–25% for the West bloc (Brunei, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam). The results of the regression analysis showed that the influence of geopolitical factors on the foreign trade of the ASEAN countries is very significant. Membership in the East bloc increases exports to China by 1,07%; in the West block – exports to the United States by 2,61%.
Code	330.8+339.5+339.9
DOI	10.14530/reg.2025.6.24
Keywords	reciprocal tariffs, trade war, China, USA, Southeast Asia, ASEAN
Download	2025-06.24.pdf
For citation	Dyomina Ya.V. ASEAN Trade Under the New U.S. Tariff Policy. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2025. Vol. 12. No. 6. Pp. 24–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2025.6.24 (In Russian)
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