ERI FEB RAS |
Issue's contents |
RUS |
Regionalistica 2024 Volume 11 number 2 pages 5-26 |
Title of the article | Fertility of Urban and Rural Population in Post-Soviet Russia: Regional Trends |
Pages | 5-26 |
Author | Domnich Yegor Leonidovich candidate of sciences (economics), senior research fellow Economic Research Institute FEB RAS 153, Tikhookeanskaya Street, Khabarovsk, Russia, 680042 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0002-1379-8053 |
Abstract | Fertility – a quantitative expression of the intensity of childbearing in a population – is one of the most important socio-economic parameters of the development of society. Its spatial and temporal characteristics have key importance for regional development. Based on an analysis of the total fertility rate for 79 regions of Russia during 1993–2022, the characteristics of the fertility of the urban and rural population, which are reproduced regardless of the territorial grouping of the regions, were identified. The total fertility rates were calculated for groups of regions allocated according to the administrative- territorial division of the Russian Federation and depending on the birth rate in real generations of women. Regardless of the grouping of regions, it was found that the birth rate of the urban population began to increase significantly already in the first period of growth (2000– 2006), associated with an improvement in the overall socio-economic level. The rate of its increase doubled during the second growth period (2007–2015), associated with the institution of maternity capital. At the same time, the birth rate of the rural population showed no signs of growth in general during the first period of growth but showed twice the rate of increase compared to the urban population during the second period of growth. The rate of decline in rural fertility in both the first recession period (1993–1999) and the second (2015–2022) was on average twice that of the urban population, indicating the distinctive vulnerability of rural fertility. |
Code | 314 |
DOI | 10.14530/reg.2024.2.5 |
Keywords | fertility, total fertility rate, urban population, rural population, comparative analysis Russia, regions |
Download | 2024-02.5.pdf |
For citation | Domnich Y.L. Fertility of Urban and Rural Population in Post-Soviet Russia: Regional Trends. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2024. Vol. 11. No. 2. Pp. 5–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2024.2.5 (In Russian) |
References | 1. Alekhin B.I. Fertility and Female Unemployment in Russian Regions. Prostranstvennaya ekonomika = Spatial Economics. 2023. Vol. 19. No. 1. Pp. 20–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2023.1.020-051 (In Russian) 2. Blinova T.V., Kutenkov R.P., Shabanov V.L. Modelling and Assessment of Rural-Urban Differences in the Dynamics of the Birth Rate in Russia. Vestnik Saratovskogo gosudarstvennogo socialno-ekonomicheskogo universiteta = Vestnik Saratov State Socio-Economic University. 2019. No. 3. Pp. 73–77. (In Russian) 3. Vakulenko E.S., Ivashina N.V., Svistyilnik Y.O. Regional Maternity Capital Programmes: Impact on Fertility in Russia. Ekonomika regiona = Economy of Regions. 2023. Vol. 19. No. 4. Pp. 1077–1092. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-4-10 (In Russian) 4. Vishnevsky A.G., Andreev E.M., Zakharov S.V., Sakevich V.I., Kvasha E.A., Kharkova T.L. Demographic Challenges of Russia. Part Two – Fertility and Mortality. Demoskop Weekly [Demoscope Weekly]. 2017. No. 751–752. Available at: https://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2017/0751/tema01.php (accessed 1 February 2024). (In Russian) 5. Gritsko M.A. Demographic Dynamics in the Far Eastern Subjects of the Russian Federation in 2013–2022. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2023. Vol. 10. No. 4. Pp. 7–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2023.4.7 (In Russian) 6. Zhuravleva T.L., Gavrilova Ya.A. Analysis of Fertility Determinants in Russia: What Do RLMS Data Say? Ekonomicheskiy zhurnal VSHE = HSE Economic Journal. 2017. Vol. 21. No. 1. Pp. 145–187. (In Russian) 7. Zakharov S.V. Modest Demographic Results of the Pronatalist Family Policy in the Context of Long-Term Evolution of Fertility in Russia. Part 2. Demographicheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review]. 2016. Vol. 3. No. 4. Pp. 6–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v3i4.3203 (In Russian) 8. Kishenin P.A. Regional Differentiation of Fertility in the Russian Federation: Cohort Perspectives. Demographicheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review]. 2023. Vol. 10. No. 4. Pp. 86–120. http://dx.doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v10i4.18810 (In Russian) 9. Motrich E.L. Modern Demographic Processes in the Russian Far East. Vlast’ i upravlenie na Vostoke Rossii [Power and Administration in the East of Russia]. 2022. No. 4 (101). Pp. 59–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/1818-4049-2022-101-4-59-68 (In Russian) 10. Russia’s Population in 2019: 27th Annual Demographic Report. Ed. by S.V. Zakharov. Moscow, 2022. 344 p. (In Russian) 11. Petrosian A.N. Fertility in Russia’s Regions at the Municipal Level (2011–2019). Demographicheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review]. 2021. Vol. 8. No. 3. Pp. 42–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v8i3.13266 (In Russian) 12. Polulyakh Yu.G., Mamash Ye.A., Oydup T.M. Analysis of Correlation Between Total Birth Rate and Average Income per Person in Differend Federal Districts. Regionalnaya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. 2009. Vol. 7. No. 18. Pp. 44–51. (In Russian) 13. Rodina O.A. Regional Variation of Fertility and Its Relation to the Socio-Economic Development of Russian Regions. Demographicheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review]. 2023. Vol. 10. No. 2. Pp. 63–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v10i2.17766 (In Russian) 14. Sinyavskaya O.V., Tyndik A.O. What Determines the Reproductive Intentions and Reproductive Behavior of Russians? Demoskop Weekly [Demoscope Weekly]. 2009. No. 379–380. Available at: https://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2009/0379/s_map.php#1 (accessed 1 February 2024). (In Russian) 15. Social and Demographic Development in Russia. The Cairo Programme of Action: 15 Years On. Available at: https://publications.hse.ru/mirror/pubs/share/folder/9hztstxdql/direct/62188900 (accessed 1 February 2024). (In Russian) 16. Trynov A.V., Kostina S.N., Bannykh G.A. Examination of Socio-Economic Determinants of Fertility Based on the Regional Panel Data Analysis. Ekonomika regiona = Economy of Regions. 2020. Vol. 16. No. 3. Pp. 807–819. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2020-3-10 (In Russian) 17. Agbaglo E., Agbadi P., Tetteh J.K., Ameyaw E.K., Adu C., Nutor J.J. Trends in Total Fertility Rate in Ghana by Different Inequality Dimensions from 1993 to 2014. BMC Women’s Health. 2022. Vol. 22. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12905-022-01629-w 18. Bongaarts J., Feeney G. On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility. Population and Development Review. 1998. Vol. 24. No. 2. Pp. 271–291. https://doi.org/10.2307/2807974 19. Chatterjee S. Rural-Urban Differentials in Fertility Levels and Fertility Preferences in West Bengal, India: A District-Level Analysis. Journal of Biosocial Science. 2020. Vol. 52. No. 1. Pp. 117–131. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021932019000324 20. Iwasaki I., Kumo K. Determinants of Regional Fertility in Russia: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Post-Communist Economies. 2020. Vol. 32. No. 2. Pp. 176–214. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2019.1678333 21. Jung M., Ko W., Choi Y., Cho Y. Spatial Variations in Fertility of South Korea: A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 2019. Vol. 8. No. 6. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi8060262 22. Lerch M. Fertility Decline in Urban and Rural Areas of Developing Countries. Population and Development Review. 2019. Vol. 45. No. 2. Pp. 301–320. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12220 23. Lutz W., Testa M.R., Penn D.J. Population Density Is a Key Factor in Declining Human Fertility. Population and Environment. 2006. Vol. 28. No. 2. Pp. 69–81. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11111-007-0037-6 24. Miljkovic D., Glazyrina A. The Impact of Socio-Economic Policy on Total Fertility Rate in Russia. Journal of Policy Modeling. 2015. Vol. 37. No. 6. Pp. 961–973. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.07.004 25. Sasaki Y., Kamihigashi T. A Spatial Panel Data Analysis of Fertility Rates: Unraveling Two Myths. Available at: https://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/DP2022-13.pdf (accessed 1 February 2024). 26. Slonimczyk F., Yurko A. Assessing the Impact of the Maternity Capital Policy in Russia. Labour Economics. 2014. Vol. 30. Pp. 265–281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2014.03.004 27. Sorvachev I., Yakovlev E. Short- and Long-Run Effects of a Sizable Child Subsidy: Evidence from Russia. Available at: https://docs.iza.org/dp13019.pdf (accessed 1 February 2024). 28. Validova A. Pronatalist Policies and Fertility in Russia: Estimating Tempo and Quantum Effects. Comparative Population Studies. 2021. Vol. 46. Pp. 425–452. https://doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2021-15 |
Financing | |
Date |