Demographic Dynamics of the Russian Far East in the Context of the Implementation of National Priorities: Sustainable Trends and Growth Constraints

ERI FEB RAS	Issue's contents	RUS
	Regionalistica 2022 Volume 9 number 6 pages 37-51

Title of the article	Demographic Dynamics of the Russian Far East in the Context of the Implementation of National Priorities: Sustainable Trends and Growth Constraints
Pages	37-51
Author 1	Belousova Anna Vasilyevna candidate of sciences (economics), senior research fellow Economic Research Institute FEB RAS 153, Tikhookeanskaya Street, Khabarovsk, Russia, 680042 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0002-8780-8146
Author 2	Gritsko Maria Anatolyevna candidate of sciences (economics), senior research fellow Economic Research Institute FEB RAS 153, Tikhookeanskaya Street, Khabarovsk, Russia, 680042 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0001-7853-0413
Abstract	The article is devoted to the analysis of the demographic dynamics of the Russian Far East in the context of its northern and southern zones during the implementation of an active regional policy on the accelerated socio-economic development of the macroregion by the federal authorities. A comparative analysis of the main demographic indicators for the period 2014–2021 showed that with general unfavorable trends in the natural dynamics of the population associated with the peculiarities of the age structure of the female reproductive contingent and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the northern zone, compared to the south, retains higher parameters of demographic development. Using the distributed lag model, estimates of the relationship between changes in economic dynamics and the average annual population of the subjects of the Russian Federation of the selected zones of the Far East were obtained. Despite the positive sign of coefficients in the corresponding dependencies, the results of quantitative analysis revealed the absence of generation of significant incentives to increase the population of both zones by economic policy measures aimed at regional growth. Thus, on the example of the southern zone of the Far Eastern Federal District, it is shown that in order to achieve the population targets established by the Concept of the Demographic Policy of the Far East for the period up to 2025, a multiple increase in the gross regional product of the subjects of the Russian Federation is required. For example, in 2022 relative to the previous year, the corresponding increase should be from 2.7 (Primorsky Territory) to 4.8 times (Amur Region). The necessity of implementing additional measures of state policy, not related to achieving accelerated growth of the economy of the macroregion, to ensure positive population growth, has been proved.
Code	332.14
DOI	10.14530/reg.2022.6.37
Keywords	population ♦ GRP ♦ distributed lag model ♦ Far Eastern Federal District ♦ southern zone ♦ northern zone ♦ subjects of the Russian Federation
Download	2022-06.37.pdf
For citation	Belousova A.V., Gritsko M.A. Demographic Dynamics of the Russian Far East in the Context of the Implementation of National Priorities: Sustainable Trends and Growth Constraints. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2022. Vol. 9. No. 6. Pp. 37–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2022.6.37 (In Russian)
References	1. Belousova A.V. Conditions for Implementation of the National Development Program of the Far East: Assessment of Needs for Investment Resources. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2021. Vol. 8. No. 6. Pp. 5–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2021.6.5 (In Russian) 2. Belousova A.V., Isaev A.G. Investment and Economic Growth: The Case of the Russian Far East. Zhurnal Novoy ekonomicheskoy assotsiatsii [Journal of the New Economic Association]. 2018. No. 2 (38). Pp. 164–170. http://dx.doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2018-38-2-9 (In Russian) 3. Belousova A.V., Isaev A.G. Forecast of Investments and the National Program of the Russian Far East Development Until 2025. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2019. Vol. 6. No. 6. Pp. 36–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2019.6.36 (In Russian) 4. Gritsko M.A. Socio-Demographic Parameters of the Far East of Russia in the Conditions of the Implementation of Documents of Strategic Development. Vlast’ i upravlenie na Vostoke Rossii [Power and Administration in the East of Russia]. 2021. No. 2 (95). Pр. 36–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/1818-4049-2021-95-2-36-46 (In Russian) 5. Gritsko M.A. Human Potential of the «New» Russian Far East. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2020. Vol. 7. No. 1. Pp. 5–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2020.1.5 (In Russian) 6. Russian Far East: Economic Development Trends (Consequences of the Pandemic). Ed. by O.M. Prokapalo. Khabarovsk, 2021. 200 p. (In Russian) 7. Druzhinin P.V., Molchanova E.V. The First and Second Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Russian Regions: Comparison of the Change in the Mortality Rate. Zhurnal Sibirskogo federal’nogo universiteta. Gumanitarnye nauki = Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences. 2021. Vol. 14. No. 7. Pp. 1028–1038. http://dx.doi.org/10.17516/1997-1370-0782 (In Russian) 8. Ivanova A.E., Pletneva Yu.E., Siviplyasova S.Y., Sigareva E.P., Arkhangelskiy V.N. Is Natural Population Growth in Russia Possible in the Next 10 Years? Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo = Economics, Taxes and Law. 2021. Vol. 14. No. 2. Pp. 32–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.26794/1999-849X-2021-14-2-32-43 (In Russian) 9. Zaretskaya V.G., Osinevich L.M. Estimation of Investment Impact on Kursk Oblast’ GDP. Regionalnaya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. 2010. Vol. 8. Issue 46. Pp. 14–18. (In Russian) 10. Minakir P.A. About the Concept of Long-Term Economic Development of the Macroregion: The Far East. Prostranstvennaya ekonomika = Spatial Economics. 2012. No. 1. Pp. 7–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2012.1.007-028 (In Russian) 11. Minakir P.A., Prokapalo O.M. Far East of Russia: Program Expectations. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2014. Vol. 1. No. 2. Pp. 6–16. (In Russian) 12. Naiden S.N. Social Potential of the Regions of the Far East: Spatial Gap. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2020. Vol. 7. No. 6. Pp. 66–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2020.6.66 (In Russian) 13. The Synthesis of Scientific-Technological and Economic Forecasts: Pacific Russia – 2050. Ed. by P.A. Minakir, V.I. Sergienko. Vladivostok, 2011. 912 p. (In Russian) 14. Khasanova R.R., Zubarevich N.V. Birth Rate, Mortality and Situation of Regions at the Onset of the Second Wave of Pandemic. Ekonomicheskoe razvitie Rossii = Russian Economic Development. 2021. Vol. 28. No. 1. Pp. 77–87. (In Russian) 15. Koyck L.M. Distributed Lags and Investment Analysis. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1954. 111 p. 16. Naiden S.N., Belousova A.V. Social Investment As a Tool for Modernization of the Demographic Development in the Far East. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2018. Vol. 11. No. 6. Pp. 212–228. http://dx.doi.org/10.15838/esc.2018.6.60.13 17. Richardson H.W. Regional Economics. Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1979. 325 р.
Financing	The study was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project No. 20-010-00818 A).
Date