Economic Development and Social Dynamics in the Russian Far East: Scenario Forecast

ERI FEB RAS	Issue's contents	RUS
	Regionalistica 2022 Volume 9 number 6 pages 23-36

Title of the article	Economic Development and Social Dynamics in the Russian Far East: Scenario Forecast
Pages	23-36
Author 1	Minakir Pavel Aleksandrovich academician RAS, doctor of economics, professor, research supervisor Economic Research Institute FEB RAS 153, Tikhookeanskaya Street, Khabarovsk, Russia, 680042 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0002-5451-5662
Author 2	Isaev Artem Gennadyevich сandidate of sciences (economics), director Economic Research Institute FEB RAS 153, Tikhookeanskaya Street, Khabarovsk, Russia, 680042 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0001-6569-2982
Author 3	Naiden Svetlana Nikolaevna doctor of economics, professor of the Russian Academy of Sciences, deputy director for research Economic Research Institute FEB RAS 153, Tikhookeanskaya Street, Khabarovsk, Russia, 680042 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0002-1647-7853
Abstract	The article presents the results of the implementation of national strategic goals within the framework of official concepts and programs for the development of the Russian Far East. Periodization has been carried out and the characteristic features of structural-economic and socio-humanitarian transformations in the economy of the macroregion, carried out for 100 years: from 1922 to the present, have been allocated. The target orientation and criteria for selecting investment projects depending on the stage of paradigm shift in the development of the Far East have been substantiated. It is shown that each historical period and the corresponding type of transformations were characterized by its own ratio between the criteria of social utility, economic and commercial efficiency. It has been determined that the current stage of modernization is distinguished by the socio-humanitarian orientation of state (budgetary) investments, in contrast to the structural and economic transformations carried out mainly at the expense of the corporate sector of the economy. Scenarios of potential states in the field of socio-humanitarian and structural-economic modernization depending on the possibilities of the state budget and the isolation of the national economy have been formed. A forecast assessment of the trajectories of investments in fixed assets in the Far Eastern Federal District until 2030 with inertial and accelerated development scenarios is presented. On the basis of the investment forecast, an assessment of the value of the welfare of the population is carried out and it is substantiated that in the case of the implementation of the accelerated scenario of investment dynamics, the potential increase in welfare will be 15.4%, and in the inertial scenario, «losses» of 12.7% are guaranteed.
Code	330.354+314.172
DOI	10.14530/reg.2022.6.23
Keywords	economic development ♦ social dynamics ♦ investments ♦ welfare ♦ population ♦ government policy ♦ performance criteria ♦ scenario ♦ forecast ♦ Russian Far East
Download	2022-06.23.pdf
For citation	Minakir P.A., Isaev A.G., Naiden S.N. Economic Development and Social Dynamics in the Russian Far East: Scenario Forecast. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2022. Vol. 9. No. 6. Pp. 23–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2022.6.23 (In Russian)
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Financing	The study was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research within the framework of grant No. 20-010-00818 «Research of the trajectories of economic, structural, technological and social dynamics of the Far East in the context of the implementation of the national program for the development of the macroregion».
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