The Impact of Age Structure on Economic Growth: Assessing the Demographic Dividend for the Russian Far East

ERI FEB RAS	Issue's contents	RUS
	Regionalistica 2025 Volume 12 number 6 pages 155-175

Title of the article	The Impact of Age Structure on Economic Growth: Assessing the Demographic Dividend for the Russian Far East
Pages	155-175
Author 1	Belousova Anna Vasilyevna candidate of sciences (economics), senior research fellow Economic Research Institute FEB RAS 153, Tikhookeanskaya Street, Khabarovsk, Russia, 680042 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0002-8780-8146
Author 2	Gritsko Maria Anatolyevna candidate of sciences (economics), senior research fellow Economic Research Institute FEB RAS 153, Tikhookeanskaya Street, Khabarovsk, Russia, 680042 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0001-7853-0413
Abstract	Econometric modeling of relationships constructed using a panel data structure for 11 Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation for the period 2000–2023 revealed a positive relationship between the share of the working-age population in the total population and the growth rate of real per capita GRP. Quantitative estimates of the first demographic dividend (FDD) were obtained for each region of the Russian Far East. It was shown that during the study period, the FDD took both positive and negative values. The contribution of the demographic dividend to the growth rate of real GRP per capita was quantitatively identified. Regions were identified for which a positive dividend accelerated economic growth or offset negative GRP growth rates, as well as regions in which a negative FDD led to a decrease in the growth rate of per capita GRP, including a transition from positive to negative values.
Code	332.146.2
DOI	10.14530/reg.2025.6.155
Keywords	population, age structure, working-age population, GRP per capita, first demographic dividend, Russian Far East, subjects of the Russian Federation
Download	2025-06.155.pdf
For citation	Belousova A.V., Gritsko M.A. The Impact of Age Structure on Economic Growth: Assessing the Demographic Dividend for the Russian Far East. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2025. Vol. 12. No. 6. Pp. 155–175. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2025.6.155 (In Russian)
References	1. Akindinova N.V., Chekina K.S., Yarkin A.M. Measuring the Contribution of Demographic Change and Human Capital to Economic Growth in Russia. Ekonomicheskiy zhurnal VSHE = HSE Economic Journal. 2017. Vol. 21. No. 4. Pp. 533–561. (In Russian) 2. Alekhin B.I. Demography and Per Head Income of the Russian Regions. Prostranstvennaya ekonomika = Spatial Economics. 2022. Vol. 18. No. 1. Pp. 125–147. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2022.1.125-147 (In Russian) 3. Artamonov N.V., Kurbatskii A.N., Khalimov T.M. Relationship Between Economic Development and Population Age Structure in the Russian Regions. Terra Economicus. 2021. Vol. 19. No. 2. Pp. 77–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.18522/2073-6606-2021-19-2-77-90 (In Russian) 4. Barsukov V.N. From the Demographic Dividend to Population Ageing: World Trends in the Systemwide Transition. Ekonomicheskiye i sotsial’nyye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz [Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast]. 2019. Vol. 12. No. 4. Pp. 167–182. http://dx.doi.org/10.15838/esc.2019.4.64.11 (In Russian) 5. Bekturganova M.S., Kenzhegulova G.K., Jussibaliyeva A.K., Tleuberdiyeva S.S. The Influence of Demographic Transition Factors on the Demographic Dividends in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Ekonomika: strategiya i praktika [Economy: Strategy and Practice]. 2022. Vol. 17. No. 3. Pp. 169–183. http://dx.doi.org/10.51176/1997-9967-2022-3-169-183 (In Russian) 6. Belousova A.V., Gritsko M.A. Assessment of the Economy’s Prospective Labor Resources Needs: Scenario Experiments for the Russian Far East. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2024. Vol. 11. No. 6. Pp. 46–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2024.6.46 (In Russian) 7. Vishnevsky A.G. Unresolved Issues in the Theory of Demographic Revolution. Naseleniye i ekonomika [Population and Economy]. 2017. Vol. 1. No. 1. Pp. 3–21. (In Russian) 8. Vishnevsky A.G., Scherbakova E.M. Demographic Brakes of the Economy. Voprosy ekonomiki [Voprosy Ekonomiki]. 2018. No. 6. Pp. 48–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2018-6-48-70 (In Russian) 9. Volkova M.D., Kruglova M.S. From a Demographic Dividend to Sustainable Development of PRC with Ageing Population: View of Chinese Experts. Russian Journal of Economics and Law. 2024. Vol. 18. No. 3. Pp. 559–576. http://dx.doi.org/10.21202/2782-2923.2024.3.559-576 (In Russian) 10. Glushchenko G.I. Economic Implications of Demographic Shifts. Voprosy statistiki [Voprosy Statistiki]. 2019. Vol. 26. No. 6. Pp. 5–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2019-26-6-5-20 (In Russian) 11. Gritsko M.A. Demographic Dynamics in the Russian Far East: The Contribution of the Natural Component in 2022–2024. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2024. Vol. 11. No. 5. Pp. 126–141. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2024.5.126 (In Russian) 12. Gritsko M.A. Demographic Dynamics in the Far East of Russia: Stable Trends and New Challenges. Vlast’ i upravleniye na Vostoke Rossii = Power and Administration in the East of Russia. 2025. No. 2 (111). Pp. 18–25. (In Russian) 13. Demographic Modernization of Russia, 1900–2000. Ed. by A.G. Vishnevsky. Moscow, 2006. 608 p. (In Russian) 14. Denisenko M.B., Kozlov V.A. Generational Accounts and Demographic Dividend in Russia. Demograficheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review]. 2018. Vol. 5. No. 4. Pp. 6–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v5i4.8661 (In Russian) 15. Dobrokhleb V.G., Kuchmaeva O.V., Bragin A.D., Afzali M. Demographic Dividends: Formation and Use in the CIS and the Baltic Countries. Ekonomicheskiye i sotsial’nyye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz [Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast]. 2022. Vol. 15. No. 4. Pp. 172–188. http://dx.doi.org/10.15838/esc.2022.4.82.11 (In Russian) 16. Kazbekova Z.G., Kalabikhina I.E. Forecast of the Demographic Dividend Dynamics in Russia: Influence of the Pension Reform and the Pandemic. Nauchnyye issledovaniya ekonomicheskogo fakul’teta. Elektronnyy zhurnal [Scientific Researches of Faculty of Economics. Electronic Journal]. 2023. Vol. 15. Issue 3. Pp. 68–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.38050/2078-3809-2023-15-3-68-82 (In Russian) 17. Kazbekova Z.G., Liu Yu., Kalabikhina I.E. «Old» and «Young» Chinese Provinces: Age Structure and Economic Growth. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 6. Ekonomika [Lomonosov Economics Journal]. 2024. Vol. 59. No. 1. Pp. 96–121. http://dx.doi.org/10.55959/MSU0130-0105-6-59-1-5 (In Russian) 18. Kalabikhina I.E., Kazbekova Z.G. The Impact of the First Demographic Dividend on Economic Growth Considering Human Capital. Zhurnal Novoy ekonomicheskoy assotsiatsii = Journal of the New Economic Association. 2022. No. 3 (55). Pp. 81–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-5 (In Russian) 19. Korotayev A.V., Shulgin S.G., Zinkina J.V., Slav M. Estimates of the Possible Economic Effect of the Demographic Dividend for Sub-Saharan Africa for the Period up to 2036. Vostok (Oriens) [Vostok (Oriens)]. 2022. Issue 2. Pp. 108–123. http://dx.doi.org/10.31857/S086919080019128-7 (In Russian) 20. Lee R., Mason A. What Is the Demographic Dividend? Finansy i razvitiye [Finance and Development]. 2006. No. 3. Pp. 16–17. (In Russian) 21. Nguyen T.M., Pham N.T., Ha T.A. Relationship Between Population Growth and Social-Economic Development in the Age Structure Perspective (On the Example of Vietnam). Vestnik Rossiyskogo universiteta druzhby narodov. Seriya: Sotsiologiya = RUDN Journal of Sociology. 2025. Vol. 25. No. 1. Pp. 94–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.22363/2313-2272-2025-25-1-94-106 (In Russian) 22. Development of Large Socio-Economic Systems: Far Eastern Macroregion. Ed. by P.A. Minakir, A.G. Isaev. Khabarovsk, 2023. 352 p. (In Russian) 23. Development of the Economy of the Russian Far East: The Effects of the State Policy. Ed. by P.A. Minakir, S.N. Nayden. Khabarovsk, 2021. 208 p. (In Russian) 24. Reher D. Economic and Social Implications of the Demographic Transition (Translation from English). Demograficheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review]. 2015. Vol. 1. No. 4. Pp. 41–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v1i4.1802 (In Russian) 25. Barro R.J., Sala-i-Martin X. Economic Growth. Cambridge, MA; London: The MIT Press, 2004. 672 p. 26. Bloom D.E., Canning D., Sevilla J. The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mr1274wfhf-dlpf-rf-unpf (accessed November 2025). 27. Bloom D.E., Finlay J.E. Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia. Asian Economic Policy Review. 2009. Vol. 4. Issue 1. Pp. 45–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2009.01106.x 28. Bloom D.E., Williamson J.G. Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review. 1998. Vol. 12. No. 3. Pp. 419–455. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/12.3.419 29. Cayssials G., Gonzalez F.A.I., London S. Population and Economic Growth: A Panel Causality Analysis. Population and Economics. 2024. Vol. 8. No. 3. Pp. 220–240. https://doi.org/10.3897/popecon.8.e109133 30. Hadri K. Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data. Econometrics Journal. 2000. Vol. 3. No. 2. Pp. 148–161. https://doi.org/10.1111/1368-423x.00043 31. Im K.S., Pesaran M.H., Shin Y. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels. Journal of Econometrics. 2003. Vol. 115. No. 1. Pp. 53–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7 32. Kazbekova Z. Impact of the Demographic Dividend on Economic Growth. Population and Economics. 2018. Vol. 2. No. 4. Pp. 85–135. https://doi.org/10.3897/popecon.2.e36061 33. Levin A., Lin C.F., Chu C.S.J. Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics. 2002. Vol. 108. No. 1. Pp. 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7 34. Liao R. Research on Vietnams Demographic Dividend Period. Communications in Humanities Research. 2024. Vol. 34. Pp. 128–133. https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-7064/34/20240125 35. Miao Z. The Impact of the Demographic Dividend on the Economy. BCP Business and Management. 2023. Vol. 45. Pp. 153–158. https://doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v45i.4877 36. Soldan E. The Demographic Dividend and Demographic Window of Opportunity: A Cross-National Comparative Analysis. Demografie. 2025. Vol. 67. No. 3. Pp. 150–166. https://doi.org/10.54694/dem.0363 37. Van Der Gaag N., Beer J. de. From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden: The Impact of Population Ageing on Economic Growth in Europe. Journal of Economic and Human Geography. 2015. Vol. 106. No. 1. Pp. 94–109. https://doi.org/10.1111/tesg.12104 38. Zelity B. Estimating the Growth Effect of the Demographic Dividend. Macroeconomic Dynamics. 2025. Vol. 29. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100525100394 39. Zhang H., Zhang H., Zhang J. Demographic Age Structure and Economic Development: Evidence from Chinese Provinces. Journal of Comparative Economics. 2015. Vol. 43. No. 1. Pp. 170–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2014.07.002
Financing
Date