Assessment of the Economy’s Prospective Labor Resources Needs: Scenario Experiments for the Russian Far East

ERI FEB RAS	Issue's contents	RUS
	Regionalistica 2024 Volume 11 number 6 pages 46-63

Title of the article	Assessment of the Economy’s Prospective Labor Resources Needs: Scenario Experiments for the Russian Far East
Pages	46-63
Author 1	Belousova Anna Vasilyevna candidate of sciences (economics), senior research fellow Economic Research Institute FEB RAS 153, Tikhookeanskaya Street, Khabarovsk, Russia, 680042 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0002-8780-8146
Author 2	Gritsko Maria Anatolyevna candidate of sciences (economics), senior research fellow Economic Research Institute FEB RAS 153, Tikhookeanskaya Street, Khabarovsk, Russia, 680042 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0001-7853-0413
Abstract	The objective of this work was to assess the labor force needs of the Russian Far East economy to achieve its target program indicators. The study was conducted in the context of the northern and southern zones of the macroregion, which differ in economic structure and demographic dynamics. The northern zone is characterized by resource specialization of production and a higher share of the working-age population. The southern zone has a diversified economy and concentrates the bulk of the microregion’s population on its territory. A common version of the economic analysis apparatus of the neoclassical growth concept was used – the Cobb-Douglas production function. A quantitative analysis of its coefficients was carried out for seven large groupings of types of economic activity. Three scenarios of the socio-economic development of the Far East until 2030 were formed: inertial; optimal and forced, each of which assumed different variations in the volume and structure of gross added value and investment in fixed capital. The calculations yielded estimates of the employed population (labor demand) required to achieve the target parameters of the macroregion economy in 2030. The demographic forecast data developed by the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation until 2045 were used as a prospective estimate of the labor supply. A comparison of the estimates revealed a labor force deficit in the Russian Far East in 2030. The only case of satisfying the economy’s labor force needs at the expense of its own population was the inertial scenario for the development of the economy of the southern zone of the Far East, assuming an increase in investment flows and the transformation of their sectoral structure in accordance with the structure of gross value added.
Code	332.14
DOI	10.14530/reg.2024.6.46
Keywords	population, age structure, labor force, production function, development scenarios, Russian Far East, subjects of the Russian Federation
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For citation	Belousova A.V., Gritsko M.A. Assessment of the Economy’s Prospective Labor Resources Needs: Scenario Experiments for the Russian Far East. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2024. Vol. 11. No. 6. Pp. 46–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2024.6.46 (In Russian)
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