ECRIN
ERI FEB RAS
2024-5
Issue's contents
russian version
RUS
previous article Regionalistica 2024 Volume 11 number 5 pages 21-40 next article

 

Title of the article Mechanisms and Risks of the Chinese Economy in 2014–2023
Pages 21-40
Author Izotov Dmitry AleksandrovichIzotov Dmitry Aleksandrovich
doctor of economics, leading research fellow
Economic Research Institute FEB RAS
153, Tikhookeanskaya Street, Khabarovsk, Russia, 680042
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
ORCID: 0000-0001-9199-6226
Abstract The purpose of the study is to analyze the mechanisms and risks of Chinese economic development during the period of global political and economic instability (2014–2023). It was found that the Chinese economy functioned based on low-cost goods exports, inequality in regional development and a high level of internal migration, strong control over the capital inflow / outflow and the cost of production, and development of infrastructure through massive direct investment due to a high level of savings. It was determined that in 2014–2023 the PRC economy faced the following risks: high dependence on exports and low domestic consumption; difficulty maintaining low production costs due to rising household incomes; decreased efficiency of investment in the economy; increased size of the state in the economy; insufficient openness and decreased efficiency of the legal system. It was shown that the functioning of the Chinese economy was supported by its unique characteristics that reduce the limitations of the «East Asian model» of economic development.
Code 338+339
DOI 10.14530/reg.2024.5.21
Keywords economic growth, GDP, exports, internal migration, consumption, investment efficiency, economic risks, region, China
Download 2024-05.21.pdf
For citation Izotov D.A. Mechanisms and Risks of the Chinese Economy in 2014–2023. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2024. Vol. 11. No. 5. Pp. 21–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2024.5.21 (In Russian)
References 1. Izotov D.A. Post-COVID-19 Chinese Economy: Scenarios of Recovery. Oykumena. Regionovedcheskie issledovaniya [Ojkumena. Regional Researches]. 2022. No. 4. Pp. 139–151. http://dx.doi.org/10.24866/1998-6785/2022-4/139-151 (In Russian)
2. Portyakov V.Y. Policy of Foreign Economic Openness in the People’s Republic of China: Main Results and Prospects. Kontury global’nyh transformacij: politika, ekonomika, parvo = Outlines of Global Transformations: Politics, Economics, Law. 2019. Vol. 12. No. 1. Pp. 44–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.23932/2542-0240-2019-12-1-44-68 (In Russian)
3. Al-Haschimi A., Spital T. The Evolution of China’s Growth Model: Challenges and Long-Term Growth Prospects. ECB Economic Bulletin. 2024. Issue 5. Available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/articles/2024/html/ecb.ebart202405_01~a6318ef569.en.html (accessed 1 October 2024).
4. Ansar A., Flyvbjerg B., Budzier A., Lunn D. Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China. Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 2016. Vol. 32. No. 3. Pp. 360–390. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grw022
5. Baek S.W. Does China Follow «The East Asian Development Model»? Journal of Contemporary Asia. 2005. Vol. 35. No. 4. Pp. 485–498. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472330580000281
6. Bahaj S., Reis R. The Anatomy of a Peg: Lessons from China’s Parallel Currencies. Available at: https://cepr.org/publications/dp18749 (accessed 1 October 2024).
7. Bai X., Hong S., Wang Y. Learning from Processing Trade: Firm Evidence from China. Journal of Comparative Economics. 2021. Vol. 49. No. 2. Pp. 579–602. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2020.12.001
8. Chan K.W., Yang X. Internal Migration and Development: A Perspective from China. In: Routledge Handbook of Migration and Development. Ed. by T. Bastia, R. Skeldon. New York: Routledge, 2020. Pp. 567–584.
9. Dai M., Maitra M., Yu M. Unexceptional Exporter Performance in China? The Role of Processing Trade. Journal of Development Economics. 2016. Vol. 121. No. C. Pp. 177–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.03.007
10. Fajgelbaum P., Goldberg P.K., Kennedy P.J., Khandelwal A., Taglioni D. The US – China Trade War and Global Reallocations. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w29562 (accessed 1 October 2024).
11. Funke M., Shu Ch., Cheng X., Eraslan S. Assessing the CNH – CNY Pricing Differential: Role of Fundamentals, Contagion and Policy. Available at: https://www.bis.org/publ/work492.pdf (accessed 1 October 2024).
12. Gill I.S., Kharas H. The Middle-Income Trap Turns Ten. Available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/291521468179640202/pdf/WPS7403.pdf (accessed 1 October 2024).
13. Guan X., Wei H., Lu S., Dai Q., Su H. Assessment on the Urbanization Strategy in China: Achievements, Challenges and Reflections. Habitat International. 2018. Vol. 71. No. 3. Pp. 97–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2017.11.009
14. Hu C., Tan Y. Export Spillovers and Export Performance in China. China Economic Review. 2016. Vol. 41. No. C. Pp. 75–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2016.08.008
15. Hummels D., Ishii J., Yi K.M. The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade. Journal of International Economics. 2001. Vol. 54. No. 1. Pp. 75–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(00)00093-3
16. Jin Z., Zhang J. Access to Local Citizenship and Internal Migration in a Developing Country: Evidence from a Hukou Reform in China. Journal of Comparative Economics. 2023. Vol. 51. No. 1. Pp. 181–215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2022.08.004
17. Kim B. What Has China Learned from Processing Trade? Economic Structures. 2017. Vol. 6. No. 32. Pp. 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-017-0088-5
18. Lemoine F., Unal D. China’s Foreign Trade: A «New Normal». China and World Economy. 2017. Vol. 25. No. 2. Pp. 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12191
19. Li Y., Yang M., Zhu L. FDI, Export Sophistication, and Quality Upgrading: Evidence from China’s WTO Accession. Japan and the World Economy. 2021. Vol. 59. No. C. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2021.101086
20. Liu M.-H., Margaritis D., Zhang Y. The Global Financial Crisis and the Export-Led Economic Growth in China. The Chinese Economy. 2019. Vol. 52. No. 3. Pp. 232–248. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2018.1548144
21. Liu T.-Y., Su C.W., Jiang X.-Z. Is Economic Growth Improving Urbanisation? A Cross-Regional Study of China. Urban Studies. 2015. Vol. 52. No. 10. Pp. 1883–1898. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098014540348
22. Manova K., Yu Z. How Firms Export: Processing Vs. Ordinary Trade with Financial Frictions. Journal of International Economics. 2016. Vol. 100. No. C. Pp. 120–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.02.005
23. Popov V., Jomo K.S. Exchange Rate Undervaluation and Growth in China. Development. 2020. Vol. 63. No. 3. Pp. 120–125. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41301-020-00248-y
24. Qu X., Xu Z., Yu J., Zhu J. Understanding Local Government Debt in China: A Regional Competition Perspective. Regional Science and Urban Economics. 2023. Vol. 98. No. C. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103859
25. Sato K. International Variations in the Incremental Capital-Output Ratio. Economic Development and Cultural Change. 1971. Vol. 19. No. 4. Pp. 621–640. https://doi.org/10.1086/450516
26. Solow R.M. Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 1957. Vol. 39. No. 3. Pp. 312–320. http://doi.org/10.2307/1926047
27. Vinhas de Souza L. Caught in the Middle? China and the «Middle Income Trap». Available at: https://leap.luiss.it/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/WP9.24-Caught-in-the-Middle-China-and-the-Middle-Income-Trap-1.pdf (accessed 1 October 2024).
28. Vortherms S.A., Liu G.G. Hukou As Benefits: Demand for Hukou and Wages in China. Urban Studies. 2022. Vol. 59. No. 15. Pp. 3167–3183. https://doi.org/10.1177/00420980221074911
29. Wang L., Zhang B., Xie R., Su B. The Drivers of Export Value-Added in China’s Provinces: A Multi-Regional Input-Output Model. Applied Economics. 2020. Vol. 52. No. 57. Pp. 6199–6214. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1787322
30. Wang X., Shi R., Zhou Y. Dynamics of Urban Sprawl and Sustainable Development in China. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences. 2020. Vol. 70. No. 1. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2019.100736
31. Wen F., Yu S., Liu H., Jiang Y. Changing Patterns and Determinants of China’s Interprovincial Migration: Evidence from the 2020 Census. Population, Space and Place. 2024. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2850
32. Wu R., Yang D., Zhang L., Huo J. Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Determinants of Inter-Provincial Migration in China 1995–2015. Sustainability. 2018. Vol. 10. No. 11. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10113899
33. Xing Y. Rising Wages, Yuan’s Appreciation and China’s Processing Exports. China Economic Review. 2018. Vol. 48. No. C. Pp. 114–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2017.04.002
34. Zhai F., Lee J.Y. Prospects for China’s Long-Term Growth Amidst Population Aging. Available at: https://amro-asia.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/AN_Chinas-Long-term-Growth-Prospect-2023-12-14_amended.pdf (accessed 1 October 2024).
35. Zhao L., Liu S., Zhang W. New Trends in Internal Migration in China: Profiles of the New-Generation Migrants. China and World Economy. 2018. Vol. 26. No. 1. Pp. 18–41.
36. Zhao M. Moving to «Bei – Shang – Guang»? Internal Migration, Local Hukou Barriers and Labour Market Outcomes Among College Graduates in China. Population, Space and Place. 2023. Vol. 29. No. 5. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2651
37. Zhu X. China’s Productivity Challenge. Available at: https://www.economics.utoronto.ca/public/workingPapers/tecipa-771.pdf (accessed 1 October 2024).
38. Zhu Y., Lin L., Li T., Dong Y. The Validity and International Comparability of China’s Floating Population Concepts and Data. Journal of Geographic Science. 2023. Vol. 33. No. 9. Pp. 1815–1831. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-023-2154-2
Financing  
Date  

Баннер

Лицензия Creative Commons
Если не указано другое, контент этого сайта доступен по лицензии Creative Commons «Attribution» («Атрибуция») 4.0 Всемирная.