Estimation of the Investment Lag in the Economy of the Northern Regions of the Russian Federation

ERI FEB RAS	Issue's contents	RUS
	Regionalistica 2023 Volume 10 number 3 pages 51-63

Title of the article	Estimation of the Investment Lag in the Economy of the Northern Regions of the Russian Federation
Pages	51-63
Author	Dolgunova Anastasiia Tsibenovna deputy head of the Department of Macroeconomic Analysis Strategic Research Center at the Head of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) 28, Lenin Avenue, Yakutsk, Russia, 677000 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0009-0003-0924-4490
Abstract	The inclusion of the zone of the North and the Arctic among the regions critical for the prospective economic development and security of the country implies a significant increase in the volume and, most importantly, the reliability of knowledge regarding the conditions for the use of the main factors of production, in particular investments. A stable hypothesis, which was formed back in the Soviet period, is the presence of a number of features in the North Arctic zone, which turn the conditions for the use of production factors in general and investments in fixed capital in particular into marginal ones. It was an axiom that investments in the northern territories are characterized by significant capital intensity, a long investment cycle, and high riskiness of projects. Although the study of the problems of «stretching» investment cycles, i.e. the lengthening of all phases of the cycle in time, as well as the stability of investment trends, were not as popular as the problem of the «northern appreciation», but the statement that the presence of investment lags causes a relatively low economic efficiency of investment processes, manifested in a delay in obtaining the final effect, seemed indisputable, an increase in the cost of the investment project, an increase in the risk of the formation of «incomplete». In the 2000s, not only the general economic situation and the mechanisms of the functioning of the economy changed significantly, but also technologies both in production and in investment processes. This could not but affect the specific parameters of investment projects, including the comparative conditions for the distribution of investment resources in the territorial aspect. The article attempts to consider the «lag stretching axiom» and the rise in the cost of investment processes in this regard in modern conditions. It is concluded that the hypothesis about the marginal duration of lags for the regions of the North and the Arctic is not supported by both actual data and the results of estimating the length of construction lags (direct methods) and lags for commissioning capacities and investment lags (indirect methods).
Code	330.322.55
DOI	10.14530/reg.2023.3.51
Keywords	North, northern regions, investment lag, construction lag, investment in fixed assets
Download	2023-03.51.pdf
For citation	Dolgunova A.Ts. Estimation of the Investment Lag in the Economy of the Northern Regions of the Russian Federation. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2023. Vol. 10. No. 3. Pp. 51–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2023.3.51 (In Russian)
References	1. Baranov A.O., Goreev A.V. Analysis of the Multiplier Effects Produced by Investment in a Dynamic Input-Output Model. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Studies on Russian Economic Development]. 2022. Vol. 33. No. 6. Pp. 686–695. http://dx.doi.org/10.47711/0868-6351-195-156-170 (In Russian) 2. Baranov A.O., Kvaktun M.I. Forecasting Accelerated Renovation of Fixed Capital Assets in Russia Using a Dynamic Input-Output Model. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Studies on Russian Economic Development]. 2020. Vol. 31. No. 2. Pp. 162–170. (In Russian) 3. Dolgunova A.Ts. Investment Lag in the Economy of the Northern Subjects of the Russian Federation. In: The North and the Arctic in the New Global Development Paradigm. Luzin Readings – 2022: Proceedings of the XI International Scientific and Practical Conference (Apatity, September 22–23, 2022). Apatity, 2022. Pp. 141–142. (In Russian) 4. Dolgunova A.Ts. On Some Characteristics of the Relationship Exerted Through Time Between Fixed Capital Investment and Gross Regional Product of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia). Regional’naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika [Regional Economics: Theory and Practice]. 2019. Vol. 17. Issue 12. Pp. 2399–2412. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/re.17.12.2399 (In Russian) 5. Evtushenko N.I. Assessment of the Construction Lag in the Sectors of the Russian Economy. In: Economics: Proceedings of the 59th International Students Scientific Conference. April 12–23, 2021. Novosibirsk, 2021. Pp. 195–196. (In Russian) 6. Innovative Development of Industry in the Arctic Regions: Problems and Prospects. Ed. by V.A. Tsukerman. Apatity, 2022. 138 p. http://dx.doi.org/10.37614/978.5.91137.462.4 (In Russian) 7. Innovation and Investment System of the Northern Regions of Russia: Problems and Prospects. Syktyvkar, 2017. 302 p. (In Russian) 8. Liokumovich D.A., Rutkovskaya E.A. Estimations of Investment Lag: Analysis, Methods, Results. In: Scientific Articles – Institute of Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences. 2010. Vol. 8. Pp. 135–148. (In Russian) 9. Rutkovskaya E.A., Maksimtsova S.I. To the Problem of Modeling the Relationships in the Investment and Stock Unit of the Dynamic Model. In: Scientific Articles – Institute of Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences. 2014. Vol. 12. Pp. 58–75. (In Russian) 10. Skufina T.P., Baranov S.V. Mathematical and Statistical Modeling of the GRP Production Dynamics in the Regions of the North and the Arctic: In Search of a Better Model. Voprosy statistiki = Voprosy Statistiki. 2017. No. 7. Pp. 52–64. (In Russian) 11. Skufina T.P., Baranov S.V., Korchak E.A. Impact Assessment of Investment Dynamics on the Growth of the Gross Regional Product in the Regions of the North and the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation. Voprosy statistiki = Voprosy Statistiki. 2018. Vol. 25. No. 6. Pp. 25–35. (In Russian)
Financing
Date