Issue's contents
russian version
previous article Regionalistica 2022 Volume 9 number 1 pages 48-58 next article


Title of the article Tools for Estimating Large-Scale Transport Projects in a Situation of Radical Uncertainty
Pages 48-58
Author 1 Kibalov Evgeny BorisovichKibalov Evgeny Borisovich
doctor of economics, professor, chief researcher
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS
17, Academician Lavrentyev Avenue, Novosibirsk, Russia, 630090
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
ORCID: 0000-0002-1568-3508
Author 2 Pyataev Maksim ViktorovichPyataev Maksim Viktorovich
candidate of sciences (economics), head of the department «System Analysis and Project Management»
Siberian Transport University
191, Dusi Kovalchuk Street, Novosibirsk, Russia, 630049
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
ORCID: 0000-0002-0844-7574
Abstract The purpose of the article is to demonstrate how the systemic analysis of the effectiveness of large-scale railway projects with high strategic significance for the country should be carried out. The achievement of the set goal is racing on the example of three projects: Transpolar Mainline, Lena-Kamchatka Mainline and the railway crossing to Sakhalin Island. Projects of this scale implemented in the territory of Siberia and the Far East are unacceptable to evaluate from the point of view of their commercial efficiency. Within the framework of this study, it is proposed to use the logical-heuristic model for assessing the effectiveness of large-scale railway projects based on expert technology.
Code 330.5+656
DOI 10.14530/reg.2022.1.48
Keywords expert technologies ♦ large-scale projects ♦ megaprojects ♦ system analysis ♦ project management ♦ railway projects ♦ uncertainty ♦ transport infrastructure
Download 2022-01.48.pdf
For citation Kibalov E.B., Pyataev M.V. Tools for Estimating Large-Scale Transport Projects in a Situation of Radical Uncertainty. Regionalistica [Regionalistics]. 2022. Vol. 9. No. 1. Pp. 48–58. (In Russian)
References 1. Kibalov E.B., Kin A.A., Pyataev M.V. Large-Scale Railway Projects in Eastern Russia: An Expert Review. Region: ekonomika i sotsiologiya [Region: Economics and Sociology]. 2019. No. 2 (102). Pp. 207–223. (In Russian)
2. Kibalov Ye.B., Kin A.A., Khutoretsky A.B. Assessing Efficiency of Large Transportation Projects. Region: ekonomika i sotsiologiya [Region: Economics and Sociology]. 2012. No. 2 (74). Pp. 161–187. (In Russian)
3. Kibalov E.B., Shibikin D.D. Evaluation of Efficiency of Large-Scale Investment Projects in the Context of Conceptual Designing. Vestnik YuUrGU. Seriya «Komp’yuternye tekhnologii, upravlenie, radioelektronika» [Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Ser. Computer Technologies, Automatic Control, Radio Electronics]. 2017. Vol. 17. No. 3. Pp. 99–108. (In Russian)
4. Livshits V.N., Tischenko T.I., Frolova M.P., Livshits S.V. Features of Assessing the Effectiveness of Large-Scale Events in the Nonstationary Economy of Russia. In: Management of Development of Large-Scale Systems (MLSD’2019) [Electronic Resource] : Proceedings of the 12th International Conference, 1–3 October 2019, Moscow. Ed. by S.N. Vassilyev, A.D. Tsvirkun. Moscow, 2019. Pp. 290–291. (In Russian)
5. Evaluation of the Social Efficiency of Large-Scale Railway Projects in the Situation of Uncertainty: A Neo-System Approach. Ed. by K.L. Komarov. Novosibirsk, 2020. 154 p. (In Russian)
6. Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. Moscow, 2021. 288 p. (In Russian)
7. Khutoretskii A.B. Expert Estimation of Objects on an Unquantifiable Criteria Using the Model Berge – Bruk – Burkov. Novosibirsk, 1994. 8 p. (In Russian)
8. Behrens W., Hawranek P.M. Manual for the Preparation of Industrial Feasibility Studies. Available at: (accessed February 2022).
9. Flyvbjerg B., Bester D.W. The Cost-Benefit Fallacy: Why Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis. 2021. Vol. 12. No. 3. Pp. 395–419.
10. Ustinovicius L., Loniewski K. Verbal Decision Analysis. Economics and Management. 2013. No. 2. Pp. 212–228.
Financing Completed according to the research plan of the IEIE SB RAS, Project (0260-2021-0002) «Integration and Interaction of Mesoeconomic Systems and Markets in Russia and Its Eastern Regions: Methodology, Analysis, Prediction».


Лицензия Creative Commons
Если не указано другое, контент этого сайта доступен по лицензии Creative Commons «Attribution» («Атрибуция») 4.0 Всемирная.